In connection with work on the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS I have been studying Epimodel, an elegantly simple epidemiological model and computer program for estimation and projection of AIDS cases.
See J. Chin and S.K. Lwanga, "Estimation and projection of adult AIDS cases: a simple epidemiological model", Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 69(4), 399-406 (1991); also section 10.4 of Brookmeyer, Ron and Mitchell H. Gail, AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach, New York, Oxford University Press, 1994.
In an effort to understand the epimodel model and program precisely I have developed several spreadsheets and written several notes, available here (directory listing). The notes are text files. The zip archives contain Excel 97 spreadsheets. This material is fragmented, but (I think) useful. It will take until the end of the year to produce a more organized exposition.
5 September 1999